This 10 rule roughly predicts that 120,000325,000 individuals (depending on the assumed mutation rate haub (1995 "at some time back in the 1970s, some now-forgotten writer made the statement that 75 percent of the people who had ever been born were alive at that moment.". wesley stephenson, do the dead outnumber the living?, bbc news 4 February 2012. Ciara curtin, fact or Fiction?: living people outnumber the dead, scientific American, kapitza, 'the phenomenological theory of world population growth Physics-Uspekhi 39(1) 57-71 (1996) cites estimates ranging between 80 and 150 billion (Sergei p kapitza, 'the phenomenological theory of world population growth Physics-Uspekhi 39(1) 57-71. Weiss, human biology 56637, 1984, and. Keyfitz, applied Mathematical Demography, new York: Wiley, 1977). Haub (1995) cited 105 billion, updated to 107 billion as of 2011 in haub, carl (October 2011). "How Many people have ever lived on Earth?". Retrieved April 29, 2013.
An Essay on the Principle of Population
Journal of geophysical Research. CS1 maint: Multiple names: authors list ( link ) per Sjödin, Agnès e sjöstrand, mattias jakobsson and Michael lum, "Resequencing data provide no evidence for a human bottleneck in Africa during the penultimate glacial period" Mol biol evol (2012) doi:.1093/molbev/mss061. "A small human effective population size, on the order of 10,000 individuals, which is smaller than the effective population size of most great apes, has been interpreted as a result of a very long history, starting 2 mya, of a small population size, coined. 1998; Hawks. Our findings are consistent with this hypothesis, but, depending on the mutation rate, we find either an effective population size of na 12,000 (95. 9,00015,500 when averaging over all three demographic models) using the mutation rate calibrated with the human-chimp divergence or an effective population size of na 32,500 individuals (95. 27,50034,500) using the mutation rate given by whole-genome trio analysis (The 1000 Genomes Project Consortium 2010) (supplementary figure 4 and table frankenstein 6, supplementary material online). Not surprisingly, the estimated effective mutation rates θ 4NAµ are comparable for the two mutation rates we considered, and are equal.4 103/bp/generation (95. Relating the estimated effective population size to the census population size during the Pleistocene is a difficult task because there are many factors affecting the effective population size (Charlesworth 2009). Nevertheless, based on published estimates of the ratio between effective and census population size, a comprehensive value on the order of 10 has been found by Frankham (1995).
range of estimates for average growth rates over the preceding century according to the data cited under #Historical_population night ; The average growth rate for the 14th century is negative as a consequence of the Black death. The Ancient near East,. Thomlinson (1975 "one to ten million". pala, m; Olivieri, a; Achilli, a; Accetturo, m; Metspalu, e; reidla, m; Tamm, E; Karmin, M; reisberg, T; hooshiar Kashani, b; Perego, ua; Carossa, v; Gandini, f; Pereira, jb; soares, P; Angerhofer, N; Rychkov, s; Al-Zahery, n; Carelli, v; Sanati, mh; houshmand, M; Hatina, j;. "Mitochondrial dna signals of late glacial recolonization of Europe from near eastern refugia". "Late Pleistocene human population bottlenecks, volcanic winter, and differentiation of modern humans". Journal of Human evolution. "Volcanic Winter, and Differentiation of Modern Humans". "Did the toba volcanic eruption of 74k bp produce widespread glaciation?".
A.) 1,791 (.6. A.) 6,062 (.4. A.) 8,175 (.0. A.) When considering population estimates by world region, it is worth noting that population history of the indigenous peoples of the Americas before the 1492 voyage of Christopher Columbus has proven difficult to establish, with many historians arguing for an estimate of 50 million people. 35 It is therefore estimated by some that populations in Mexico, central, and south America could have reached 37 million by 1492. 36 Additionally, the population estimate of 2 million for North America for the same time period represents the low end of modern estimates, and some estimate the population to have been as high as 18 million. 37 see also references edit un world Population Prospect 2017 gives a "median" estimate.2 billion for 2100, with a "95 confidence interval" between 10 and 13 billion.
World population estimates - wikipedia
31 On the other hand, a conservative scenario published in 2012 assumes that a maximum of 8 billion will be reached before 2040. 32 The following table shows projections of world population for the 21st century. Year United States Census Bureau (2015) 28 Population Reference bureau (1973-2015) 15 United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2015),334,771,614 7,432,663,412,778,490,427,567,402,643,402,123 7,758,157,718,256,792,021,864,725,936,271,006,580,553 8,000,000,000 8,141,661,075,716,143,729,210,559,276,190,340,606,590 8,505,000,000 8,500,766,403,880,466,094,527,246,587,325,646,304,704 8,838,908,704,239,761,189,817,138,872,066,925,949,679 9,157,234,978,822,030,723,081,617,131,462,180,225,214 9,453,892,227,935,274,616,320,232,364,750,408,141,302 9,804,000,000 9,725,148,968,809,184,290,375,719,547,989,701,653,836,635,953,525,055,270,142,461,213,317,000 Other, historical projections include tanton (1994 8 billion for the year 2020; McEvedy. By world region edit un estimates (as of 2017) for world population by continent in 20 (pie chart size to scale). Asia Africa Europe South/Central America North America Oceania population estimates for world regions based on Maddison (2007 33 in millions. The row showing total world population includes the average growth rate per year over the period separating each column from the preceding one.
Year East / southeast Asia 74 (33) 88 (33) 166 (38) 223 (40) 216 (36) 469 (45) 613 (34) 1,996 (33) 2,417 (30) south Asia 75 (33) 75 (28) 110 (25) 135 (24) 165 (27) 216 (21) 326 (18) 1,372 (23) 2,003 (25) Europe. A.) 438 (.1. A.) 556 the (.2. A.) 603 (.1. A.) 1,041 (.5.
From the beginning of the early modern period until the 20th century, world population has been characterized by a faster-than-exponential growth. For the period of Classical Antiquity to the middle Ages, roughly 500 bc to ad 1500, there has also been a general tendency of growth (estimated at roughly a factor 4 to 5 over the 2,000 year period but not strictily monotonic : A noticeable. 14 year Population Reference bureau (19732016) 15 United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2015) 16 Maddison (2008) 17 hyde (2010) citation needed tanton (1994) Biraben (1980) 19 McEvedy jones (1978) 20 Thomlinson (1975) 21 Durand (1974) 22 Clark (1967) M 24 4M 110M. Some sources give these numbers rounded to the nearest million or the nearest thousand, while others give them without any rounding. Taking these numbers at face value would be false precision ; in spite of being stated to four, seven or even ten digits, they should not be interpreted as accurate to more than three digits at best (estimates by the United States Census Bureau and.
Year United States Census Bureau (2017) 28 Population Reference bureau (19732016) 15 United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2015) 16 Maddison (2008) 17 hyde (2007) 24 Tanton (1994) Biraben (1980) 19 McEvedy jones (1978) 20 Thomlinson (1975) 21 Durand (1974) 22 Clark (1967),557,628,654. Actual recorded population figures (as of 2010) are colored in blue. According to the highest estimate, the world population may rise to 16 billion by 2100; according to the lowest estimate, it may decline to 6 billion. As of 2015, the population of the world is projected to reach 8 billion in 2025, and 9 billion by about 2040/42. Kapitza (1996) estimated an asymptotic limit of population growth of 14 billion, 90 of which (12.6 billion) expected to be reached by 2135. 29 reasonable predictions of population development are possible for the next 30 years or so, representing the period of fertility of the children alive today. Projections of population reaching more than one generation into the future are highly speculative: Thus, the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs report of 2004 projected the world population to peak.22 billion in 2075 and then stabilise at a value close.
Biology Projects Project Report biologybiology Project
11 The answer naturally depends on the salon definition of "people. Is only homo sapiens to be counted, or all of genus Homo, but due to the small population sizes in the lower Paleolithic, the order of magnitude of the estimate is not affected by the choice of cut-off date substantially more than by the uncertainty. 12 The estimate is more crucially affected by the estimate of infant mortalitys. Stillborn infants, due to the very high infant mortality throughout the pre-modern period. An estimate on the "total number of people who have ever lived" as of 1995 was calculated by haub (1995) at "about 105 billion births since the dawn of the human race" with a cut-off date at 50,000 bc (beginning of the Upper Paleolithic and. 13 Historical population edit before 1950 edit The following table uses astronomical year numbering for dates, negative numbers corresponding roughly to the corresponding year bc (i.e.,001 bc, etc.). The table starts counting around the late Glacial Maximum period, in which ice retreated and humans started to spread into the northern hemisphere.
Paleolithic. Estimates of the size of these populations are a topic of paleoanthropology. A late human population bottleneck is postulated by some scholars at approximately 70,000 years ago, during the toba catastrophe, when Homo sapiens population may have dropped to as low as between 1,000 and 10,000 individuals. 6 7 For the time of speciation of Homo sapiens, some 200,000 years ago, an effective population size of the order of 10,000 to 30,000 individuals has been estimated, with an actual "census population" of early homo sapiens of roughly 100,000 to 300,000 individuals. 8 The question of "how many people have ever lived?" or "what percentage of people who have ever lived are alive today" can be traced to the 1970s. 9 The more dramatic phrasing of "the living outnumber the dead" also dates to the 1970s, a time of population explosion and growing fears of human overpopulation in the wake of decolonization and before the adoption of China's One-child policy. The claim that "the living outnumber the dead" was never accurate (although it may be roughly accurate if only ancestral population is considered). Clarke in 2001: a space Odyssey (1968) has the claim that "Behind every man now alive stand 30 ghosts, for that is the ratio by which the dead outnumber the living which was roughly accurate at the time of writing. 10 Estimates of the "total number of people who have ever lived" is 107.6 billion as of 2011.
Robust population data only exists for the last two or three centuries. Until the late thesis 18th century, few governments had ever performed an accurate census. In many early attempts, such as in Ancient Egypt and the persian Empire, the focus was on counting merely a subset of the population for purposes of taxation or military service. 3 Published estimates for the 1st century ad 1 suggest an uncertainty of the order of 50 (estimates range between 150 and 330 million). Some estimates extend their timeline into deep prehistory, to " 10,000. The early holocene, when world population estimates range roughly between one and ten million (with an uncertainty of up to an order of magnitude). 4 5 Estimates for yet deeper prehistory, into the paleolithic, are of a different nature.
The population Control Agenda - radio liberty
This article lists estimates of paper world population, as well as projections of future developments. In summary, estimates for the progression of world population since the late medieval period are in the following ranges: year population (in billions).350.40.420.50.500.58.600.68.890.98.561.71.066.15. 220.127.116.11.10.15.30.5.18.104.22.168.70.8, estimates for pre-modern times are necessarily fraught with great uncertainties, and few of the published estimates have confidence intervals ; in the absence of a straightforward means to assess the error of such estimates, a rough. Population estimates cannot be considered accurate to more than two decimal digits; for example, world population for the year 2012 was estimated.02,.06 and.08 billion by the. United States Census Bureau, the, population Reference bureau and the, united Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, respectively, corresponding to a spread of estimates of the order.8. Contents, deep prehistory edit, further information: Paleodemography. Graph of world population over the past 12,000 years ( Holocene ). As a general rule, the confidence of estimates on historical world population decreases for the more distant past.